A New Chapter Begins – U.S and China

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has once again thrust the U.S. – China relations into the global spotlight. This relationship, already fraught with tension, carries profound implications for global stability. Trump’s first presidency was characterised by sharp confrontations, particularly over trade and technology, which set the tone for a more adversarial U.S. approach. His “America First” policy signalled a departure from decades of internationalist strategies, focusing instead on bilateral power dynamics and U.S. primacy.

From Beijing’s perspective, Trump’s re-election introduces new uncertainties. His rhetoric and policies often framed China as the central challenge to U.S. dominance, a stance that galvanised anti-China sentiments both domestically and internationally. In response, Beijing intensified efforts to fortify its economy, expand its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road, and deepen ties with other major powers such as Russia.

The unfolding of Trump’s second presidency will test the resilience of the U.S. – China relations, which are no longer just a bilateral affair but a fulcrum of global geopolitics. Countries worldwide are anxiously observing these developments, bracing for potential economic ripple effects and political realignments.

Trade Tensions Resurface

At the heart of Trump’s strategy lies the re-imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods. During his first term, these tariffs were a centrepiece of the U.S. trade war with China, resulting in a nearly $500 billion economic exchange being deeply disrupted. Trump’s claim was that these measures aimed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, encourage domestic manufacturing, and pressure Beijing to end what Washington deemed “unfair trade practices.”

Critics argued that these tariffs backfired, increasing costs for U.S. businesses and consumers while failing to compel China to adopt meaningful reforms. However, Trump remains steadfast in his belief that economic pressure is the key to forcing Beijing’s hand. His new proposal for a 10% increase in tariffs targets an even broader range of Chinese imports, further escalating economic friction between the world’s two largest economies.

From a geopolitical standpoint, these tariffs may have broader implications. By pushing for economic “decoupling,” the U.S. risks intensifying global supply chain disruptions. Nations in Asia, Europe, and Africa are likely to feel the ripple effects, as many are economically tied to both superpowers. Furthermore, such unilateral economic actions may drive Beijing to deepen alliances with countries like Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, potentially polarising the global order into competing blocs.

Technological Rivalry Intensifies

In addition to trade, the technological sphere remains one of the most contentious fronts in the U.S. – China relations. The U.S. is determined to maintain its technological edge, while China is equally committed to becoming a global leader in fields such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and semiconductors.

During Trump’s first term, Washington imposed sweeping restrictions on Chinese tech firms, notably Huawei, citing national security concerns. The U.S. accused Chinese companies of using technology to conduct espionage and bolster Beijing’s authoritarian reach. In retaliation, China launched its “Made in China 2025” initiative, aiming to reduce dependence on foreign technology by developing its own capabilities.

Fast forward to 2024, and the competition has only intensified. Trump has doubled down on export controls, aiming to block China’s access to advanced microchips and quantum computing. These efforts, however, face challenges, as enforcement has proven difficult, and Chinese companies have increasingly turned to grey markets to circumvent restrictions.

The global implications of this technological rivalry are profound. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan – key players in the semiconductor supply chain – face mounting pressure to pick sides. Meanwhile, nations in the Global South are being courted by both powers to adopt their technologies, as seen in the competition between Huawei and Western telecom firms for 5G infrastructure contracts.

Fentanyl Crisis and Diplomatic Nuances

Another flashpoint in the U.S. – China relations is the opioid crisis, particularly the trafficking of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that has ravaged American communities. China is a major supplier of the precursor chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl, often shipped to Mexico where cartels process and smuggle the drug into the U.S.

During Trump’s first presidency, limited progress was made in pressuring China to crack down on these exports. Beijing banned the production of certain fentanyl analogues in 2019, a move that Trump touted as a diplomatic victory. However, enforcement has been patchy, and the crisis persists. Trump has now linked the issue to his broader trade strategy, threatening additional tariffs on Chinese imports unless Beijing takes stronger action.

This approach, while politically resonant, risks undermining the fragile cooperation already achieved. Beijing is likely to view such linkage as coercive, potentially hardening its stance. Moreover, it raises questions about whether the Trump administration’s punitive measures could inadvertently worsen the crisis by pushing illicit production further underground.

Geopolitically, the fentanyl issue also highlights the limits of the U.S. – China cooperation on transnational challenges. While both nations have a shared interest in combating organised crime, the broader deterioration of trust has made meaningful collaboration increasingly difficult.

Global Implications

The intensifying U.S. – China rivalry is not confined to these bilateral issues – it has become the defining geopolitical challenge of the 21st century. Under Trump’s leadership, Washington is likely to adopt an even more confrontational approach, rallying allies and partners to counter Beijing’s influence. This is evident in initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which seeks to strengthen ties between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific.

For its part, Beijing has accelerated efforts to expand its global footprint. The Belt and Road Initiative, despite facing criticism for debt diplomacy, continues to draw interest from developing nations seeking infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, China’s growing influence in organisations such as the United Nations and BRICS underscores its ambition to reshape the global order in its favour.

Countries caught in the middle of this great power competition face difficult choices. For example, Europe, while aligning with the U.S. on some issues, has resisted a wholesale decoupling from China due to economic dependencies. Similarly, nations in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America are striving to maintain a delicate balance, refusing to fully align with either power while extracting benefits from both.

Conclusion

The stakes in the U.S. – China relations have never been higher. Trump’s return to the White House signals a potential escalation in tensions, with significant consequences for the global order. While some argue that his hardline approach could compel Beijing to reconsider its behaviour, others warn of the risks of miscalculation, economic destabilisation, and a new Cold War-like divide.

As the world’s two largest economies and military powers, the U.S. and China have a shared responsibility to manage their competition without spiralling into conflict. The coming years will test whether this responsibility can be upheld – or whether the world is headed for a more fractured future.

Written by Waheed Abu Araiz